具有不同状态概率表示形式的多态系统可靠性

Reliability analysis of multistate systems with different forms of state probabilities

由于多态系统的复杂性、统计数据的不完备等诸多原因 ,人们往往不能精确地确定系统及其元素的状态概率 ,也即存在着状态概率表示及计算的不确定性问题。针对多态系统中可能存在多种状态概率表示形式的情况 ,介绍了多态系统可靠性计算的随机模型、模糊模型和区间模型。对于同一系统中可能同时存在多种状态概率表示形式的情况 ,提出了将不同状态概率表示形式归一化的方法 ,给出并解释了状态概率的转换公式。

It is difficult to estimate precise probabilities of component states and system states in multistate systems, because of complexity and incompleteness of statistical data. With respect to different forms of state probabilities with uncertainty in multistate systems, multistate reliability models of stochastic, fuzzy and interval forms are introduced. In view of existing facts, that maybe there are different forms of state probabilities in a multistate system, methods to generalize different forms of state probabilities into the same form (stochastic, fuzzy or interval) are presented. The translating formulae are given and explained.