政策冲击下的货币存量控制研究

A Study on Control of Money Stock under the Shock of Policy

文章以1994～2002年为样本区间,通过构造货币供应函数和对货币政策操作实践的分析,考察货币政策操作本身对货币存量的冲击。研究表明,银行的资产组合行为对货币存量变动起着主导作用。中央银行短期性货币政策操作的变化可能会改变银行的行为参数,其行为变动的方向是在中央银行预期之内;同时,由于银行对货币政策操作的预期可能使之做出过度反应,使其贷款偏好"过松"或"过紧",进而导致实际的货币存量超出预定的目标值。这说明,经济主体的行为参数发生有规则的变化是有效控制货币存量的重要条件,为此,中央银行应该进一步提高政策决策的透明度,以求稳定和引导预期。

Using the data of sample period (1994-2002), the paper explores the shock of monetary policy on money stock by constructing money supply function analysis and the practice of policy operation. The results show that the asset compositing behavior of banks plays a main role in the fluctuation of money stock. Change of short-term monetary policy operation will alter the bank's behavioral parameter and also the behavioral direction coincides with the central bank's expectation. At the same time, the bank's expectation of monetary policy operation may lead to its excessive reaction, causing its loan bias to be 'excessively slack' or 'too rigid', thus leading to the actual money stock to deviate from predetermined target. It illuminates that the regular change of behavioral parameter is a guarantee of effective control of money stock. Therefore, the central bank should further improve the transparency of policy decision so as to stabilize and guide expectation.