日元与人民币:区域内货币合作抑或货币竞争

Yen and RMB: Monetary Co-operation or Monetary Competition in the Region

针对日元与人民币的关系问题,笔者研究发现:(1)日元与人民币现阶段都无法成为区域内锚货币,两者尚未具备区域内货币竞争的条件;(2)中日两国产业结构差异和贸易互补性使得两国货币竞争没有必要;(3)货币危机和中日双边贸易发展内在地推动两国加强区域内货币合作;(4)日本对华贸易与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。据此,仅从经济和金融角度考虑,推进日元与人民币区域内货币合作而非货币竞争对中日双方都是有利的。

As to the relationships between Yen and RMB, my latest research shows that, first, it is difficult for Yen or RMB to become an anchor currency in East Asia at present, and there are no enough preconditions for the two currencies to compete with each other in East Asia; second, it is unnecessary for Japan and China to make Yen and RMB competitive because of the differences in Sino-Japan industry structures and the complements in bilateral trade structures; third, the recent currency crises and the Sino-Japan bilateral trade development enhance endogenously the two currency's co-operation in East Asia; fourth, there are no long-run and stable co-integrating relationships between Japan's trade (imports, exports and trade balance) with China and the exchange rate of RMB. Based on the above reasons, it is beneficial to both Japan and China to improve monetary co-operation rather than monetary competition between Yen and RMB in the region if the Sino-Japan bilateral economy and finance are under consideration.