中美冲突是否必然——美国学者的视角

Is Sino-US Conflict Inevitable? An Analysis Based on American scholars

随着中国的崛起,美国学者对中美之间是否会爆发冲突的讨论越来越多。美国学者认为,中美两国爆发直接军事冲突的可能性很小。这主要是由于:第一,中国无此野心,也无此实力。第二,中国在现存国际秩序中获益而非受损。第三,美国及其构筑的西方国际秩序依然强大,中国难以打破。但是,在次级争端如台湾问题和南海问题上,中美之间引发冲突的可能性还是存在的。在非传统安全领域特别是经贸领域,中美两国的摩擦将进一步加深,货币战争、贸易争端、国际组织话语权的争夺等将主导中美之间的冲突性质,但这些问题很难导致两国兵戎相见。因此,多数美国学者认为,未来几十年,中国的发展将继续依靠美国及其构建和主导的西方国际秩序。

With the rise of China,discussions about whether the conflict would break out between China and America have increasingly become a central theme for American scholars many of whom believe that there is little possibility for the two countries to go to direct war.The reasons include:First,China has neither the ambition, nor the strength to challenge America militarily;Second,China benefits from the existing international order;and thirdly,the United States and its western international order remain strong,and it is difficult for China to break it.However,on the secondary issue of Taiwan and the South China Sea,the possibility of conflicts still exists.In the non-traditional security fields,especially economic and trade fields,the friction of the two countries will be further deepened and define the nature of the conflict,which may include currency wars,trade disputes, discourse competition for international organizations.But these disputes are not likely to evolve into war between the two countries.Thus,most American scholars believe that in the several decades to come,China's development will continue to rely on the United States and its Western-dominated international order.