基于蒙特卡洛方法的船舶搁浅概率研究

The Probability of Ship Grounding Based on Monte Carlo Method

考虑到影响船舶吃水的主要因素:船舶对波浪的响应、横倾引起的吃水变化、浅水中船舶的下沉和首倾以及航道底部情况分布特征是非常复杂和随机的,鉴于对动态吃水引起可航水深不足而导致搁浅的研究相对偏少,本文主要围绕船舶动态吃水采用蒙特卡洛方法建立船舶搁浅概率计算模型,为船舶安全通过受限水域提供依据,具有科学和现实应用的双重意义.

Considering the main factors affecting the ship draft: response to wave, ship heeling induced draught, sinking ships in shallow water and the first bend and channel bottom case distribution is very complex and random, in view of the dynamic draft caused by lack of navigable depth and led to the stranding of relatively low, the main focus of this article the ship dynamic draft a probability model using Monte Carlo method, provide the basis for the safety of the ship in restricted waters, which has dual significance of science and reality application.