基于遥感与系统动力学模型的土地利用/覆被变化研究

Land Use/Land Cover Change Based on Remote Sensing and System Dynamics Model

本文选取了1986年、2004年和2011年的TM遥感影像,结合研究区1∶1万地形图,采用监督分类法,提取并分析了安徽省升金湖国家自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化信息。在分析研究区近25年土地利用变化及景观格局的基础上,采用土地利用景观指数和系统动力学模型仿真2004年的土地利用变化,并与现实数据对比,结果表明:升金湖国家自然保护区受害最严重的依次是未利用地、建设用地、草地、林地、耕地。这与2004年的土地利用变化情况一致。同时,采用步长0.01年和系统动力学模型预测了研究区未来20年的土地利用/覆被变化,并分析了其变化的趋势,其中,建设用地和林地趋于上升的趋势,草地、耕地、水域和未利用地都在趋于平稳地下降。本文将遥感、土地利用景观指数和系统动力学模型相结合,分析、仿真和预测土地利用/覆被变化,这对研究区域土地利用/覆被变化具有一定理论价值。

This paper selected the TM remote sensing image of 1986,2004and 2011,combined with the 1∶10000topographic maps of the study area.The supervised classification was applied to the extraction and analysis of the land use/land cover change information for the national nature reserve of Shengjin Lake in Anhui province.Based on the land-use change and landscape pattern which were analyzed in nearly 25years in the study area and some landscape indices and system dynamics modeling were used for simulation of land use in 2004.By comparing with realistic data,the results show that,in national nature reserve of Shengjin Lake in Anhui province,the most severely damaged lands were unused land,construction land,grassland,forest land and cultivated land,which was consistent with the land use change in 2004.Meanwhile,steps of 0.01year and a system dynamics model were used to predict and analyze the trend of land use/land cover change in the next 20years.The results show that construction land and forest land tended to raise,the grassland,the farm land,the waters and the unused land tended to be in a steady decline.In this paper,the combination of the use of remote sensing,landscape indices and system dynamics model were used to the analysis,simulation and prediction of land use/land cover change,which has certain theoretical value for the land use/cover change of the study area.