津巴布韦大选预测

A PREDICTION ON ZIMBABWE'S GENERAL ELECTION

津巴布韦是南部非洲的一个大国,多年来在反对南部非洲白人种族主义的斗争中发挥了重要作用。大选的结果不仅对津巴布韦国内,对整个南部非洲都会有明显的影响。 1980年独立以后,津巴布韦宣布以社会主义为发展方向。为此,在独立后的头10年内,它不顾与原宗主国共同制订的兰开斯特大厦宪法束缚,多方设法企图推行一党政治体制。直至苏联、东欧剧变之后。

More than 20 political parties are going to participate in Zimbabwe's general election this year, and it looks that the ruling party Zanu will be able to win again. The reasons are: One, Zanu's ethnic policy is a success in relative sense, its merge with the opposition parties which represent minor ethnic groups, on basis of division of power being an act of wisdom; Two, Zanu's leader Mr Mugabe has played an important role in promoting peace and stability in Southern Africa; Three, Zanu has won the support from the farmers accounting for the majority of the population through its land re-settlement program; Four, the Opposition parties remain uninf luencial. Zanu will be confronted with severe challenges after winning the election. Firstly, it is the serious economic problem and the decline of people's living standard; Secondly, it is the people's apathy toward politics and their demand for strengthening supervision over the party and government officials; Thirdly, it is the competition from South Africa which is in possession of powerful economic strength. In face of this situation, any extremist slogan or action can be counter-productive.