企业新产品开发决策的不确定性和决策策略模拟实验研究

A SIMULATED EXPERIMENT RESEARCH ON THE UNCERTAINTY AND STRATEGIES OF DECISION-MAKING OF NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT IN ENTERPRISES

本文以企业新产品开发为决策内容，根据决策策略的规定性理论框架和先前调查所得决策案例，设计四种决策情景来代表四种不确定状态，通过５６名来自５个工厂的管理人员的现场模拟实验，着重研究这类决策的不确定性和决策策略之间关系。结果发现，在新产品开发的决策中，决策策略随不确定状态而改变；决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的—一对应关系；在四类不确定决策情景下，都有管理人员采用混合型策略。这一发现同混合扫瞄策略观点和垃圾罐模型的思想相一致。并且，随着决策情景的不确定程度加大，决策时间逐渐延长。最后我们提出了应继续研究的课题。

The relationship between uncertainty and strategies of decision-making of new product development in enterprises is studied though field simulated experiments which involves 56 managers from 5 factories,through four designed situations of decision-making simulating four states of uncertainty based on the theoretical framework of prescriptive view about decision-making strategies, and previously investigated cases.The findings ard: in the decision-making of newproduct development, strategies vary according todifferent states of uncertainty; there is no one--toone correspondence between uncertainty and strategies;mixed strategies are adopted by managers under all the four situations of uncertainty, which coincide with the view of Strategy of Mixed Scanningand Garbageran Models 1 and the decision--makingtime increases gradually as the uncertainty of decision-making situations strengthens. New topics forfurther study are also put forward.