影响南非未来发展诸因素探析

FACTORS DECISIVE TO SOUTH AFRICA'S FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

影响南非未来发展诸因素探析葛佶ＦＡＣＴＯＲＳＤＥＣＩＳＩＶＥＴＯＳＯＵＴＨＡＦＲＩＣＡ＇ＳＦＵＴＵＲＥＤＥＶＥＬＯＰＭＥＮＴ￥ＧｅＪｉＡｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ａｌｔｈｏｕｇｈｃｏｍｐｒｏｍｉｓｅｈａｓｂｅｅｎｒｅａｃｈｅｄａｔｔｈｅｎｅｇｏｔｉａｔｉｎｇｔ...

Abstract Although compromise has been reached at the negotiating table and a new government may soon come into force, the main contradiction is still between that of the black's expectation to change their miserable lot quickly and some of the whites and black homeland leaders to preserve their priyileged position as much as possible. Those who join in the election hope to have a say in future decision making and those who left outside reject the legitimacy of the future government and thus to reserve their right of resistence.Anyhow they are destablizing forces. Political violence will be continued if not aggrevated. The future government, restrained by the constitution and the way of the forming of the future Defence Force, has not enough means to put it down.Only when the economy develops to such a degree that the majority of both blacks and whites feel that they are better off under the new regime,then violence may be subsided. But the task of national reconstruction will be formidable. Both domestic and foreign investments need a peaceful situation to promote their confidence. The legacy of Apartheid is too heavy to the new government. Only to diminish a little of the disparity between different ethnic groups the costs are difficult to meet.