人口结构转变、产业及就业结构调整背景下劳动力供求关系分析

An Empirical Study on Labor Force Supply and Demand under the Situation of Population,Industrial and Employment Structure Adjustment

本文基于联合国对中国人口预测的调整结果和我国改革开放以来的经济数据,对劳动参与率、三次产业增加值增长率和就业弹性等关键因素在2030年前的变动趋势做出了相关假设,并结合人口结构转变、产业结构和就业结构调整情况对我国劳动力供给和需求的变动关系进行了较为全面的分析。研究表明:劳动年龄人口增长历史拐点的到来决定了我国劳动力供给持续减少趋势的必然性,而低年龄别劳动参与率的大幅下降和人口结构转变对总体劳动参与率抑制作用的加速共同决定了劳动力无限供给时代的终结;从长期趋势来看,在产业与就业结构不断调整的过程中,二、三产业保持着相对充足的劳动力吸纳能力,而第一产业对劳动力则具有挤出效应;预测结果表明我国将在"十三五"末期面临劳动力供求关系的逆转,现阶段已经出现的就业结构性问题若不得到有效解决,则届时会进一步加剧劳动力供求关系的失衡。

Based on the prediction of population from the United Nations and data dating from the reform and opening up , this paper analyzes the variation of relationship between our national labor force demand and supply under the assumption of variation of labor participation rate , growth rate of Based on the prediction of population from the United Nations and data dating from the reform and opening up , this paper analyzes the variation of relationship between our national labor force demand and supply under the assumption of variation of labor participation rate , growth rate of three tertiary industry production value and employment structure adjustment before 2030.The results show that the turning point of the labor force is approaching and the limitless for labor force supply has come to the end as the negative effect of the population structure on labor force participation rate is increasing and the labor participate rate of the youth is decreasing .In the long term, the secondary and the tertiary industry will absorb labor force efficiently with the adjustment of the industry structure , while the primary industry will crowd out the labor force; the prediction results show that the relationship between labor force demand and supply will be inversed at the end of 13th five-year-plan, and the relationship will face much more challenge by structural unemployment which has occurred currently .