人口老龄化对劳动供给、人力资本与产出影响预测

Forecast the Effects of Population Aging on Labor Supply,Human Capital and Output

本文运用动态世代交叠模型,预测人口老龄化对劳动供给和人力资本投资的短期和长期影响,进一步考察对生产能力的间接影响。通过将劳动供给和人力资本投资决策视为内生变量,模拟研究表明,短期内人口老龄化为年轻人提供了更多人力资本投资机会,导致劳动供给减少,产出水平下降,人口老龄化的经济成本增加。可是,长期内人口老龄化为社会提供更多的熟练劳动力,提高劳动参与率和产出水平,降低了人口老龄化的经济成本。

This study explores the short-run and the long-run impact of population aging on labor supply and human capital investment, as well as the induced effects on output. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model, labor supply and human capital investment decisions are endogenous in the model. The result indicates that population aging creates more opportunities for young individuals to invest in human capital. Consequently, the reduction in labor supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population aging. However, current and future middle-age cohorts are more skilled and work more, which eventually raises labor participation rate and productive capacity, lowers the cost of population aging.