多维决策法:一种新的战略决策方法

Multiple Dimensional Decision-making Approach: A New Way of Strategic Decision-making

尽管多准则决策法(MCDM,包括多属性决策和多目标决策)以及一些基于效用理论或数据的决策法已广泛应用于企业和部门决策,但仍存在决策备选方案确定、变量和指标选取、指标评判及其标准化、权重确定、定量和综合评价等难以解决的问题,特别难以应用于非结构化的区域性和综合性战略决策。本文开发了一种新的决策法,多维决策法(MDDM)及其分析模型,经过在海岸带主体功能区划中的初步应用和不断修改完善,证明它能克服MCDM等方法存在的固有问题,可应用于非结构化的战略决策;并充分考虑了决策结果对环境维的反馈作用,这是MCDM法等方法始终无法克服的软肋。

The Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making(MCDM) approach, including Multiple-Attributes and Multiple-Objectives Decision-Making and methods based on utility-based theories and data-based decision-making approaches, has widely been applied in business and sectoral public decision-making processes. The critical issues are the ways of alternative determinations, selection of attributes and indices, normalization of variables, weight assignment, quantitative and integrated assessment and so forth. A particular difficulty is to apply those existing methods to unstructured regional and integrated strategic decision- making processes. The Multiple- Dimensional Decision- Making( MDDM) approach with its analytical model described in this article, is developed and exemplified in the application of Principal Coastal Functional Zoning. The results show that the MDDM approach could address most of the issues inherent to using MCDM and related approaches and be successfully used in non-structured strategic decision-making processes. With consideration of the negative feedback of final decision to related environmental dimensions, MCDM approach is not quite effective in this regard.