房地产投资开发风险及其预测分析

Risks Forecasting Analysis of Real Estate Investment

本文结合当前我国房地产业的现状，对房地产投资开发中可能面临的风险逐一论述，并介绍了风险率、预期收益率的计算方法，以及反映风险与期望收益之间关系的ＣＡＰＭ模型和投资组合的风险衡量，还从风险的概率分布及计量等方面分析了房地产投资风险的判断及预测方法。

In light of the status quo of China's real estate development, this papergives a detailed exposition to the possible risks in the course of investing in and developing realty industry, presents the methods of calculating risk rates, expected rate of return, CAPM model representing the relationship between risks and expected return, andrisk measurement of investment portfolio, and finally introduce the methods of risks'judging and forecasting in the way of risks' probability distribution and measurement.