摘要
This paper describes the changes in China’s total population,labor force age structure and labor force participation rate(LFPR).Based on census data,this paper assesses the age pattern and changes in the LFPR,examines factors affectingthe LFPR through modeling and predicts the trends of labor force development to 2050.We find that the labor force hasbeen growing rapidly at an average annual rate of 6 percent from 1980 to 2005 due to improvements in competency andstructure.On the other hand,the overall LFPR declined mainly due to prolonged education that slashed the LFPR amongadolescents.The age pattern of labor force participation is in the shape of an inverted-U curve.Results from a Logit regression model of labor participation indicate that labor force participation intensity is higher inthe South than in the North and higher among the male population than among the female population.Presuming that thetotal fertility rate climbs to 2.0,life expectancy increases by ten years,and delayed retirement age lengthen the duration oflabor participation.We have made the following forecasts:(1) China’s future working age population will decrease;(2) labor force willexperience zero growth within 15 years and then negative growth;(3) the middle-aged and elderly populations willaccount for a significant share of the labor force.It is important to explore ways to increase,train and use human resourcesand increase the LFPR and productivity.In today’s China,regional or structural labor force shortage has already emerged.With an ageing population,China should take proactive measures by relaxing its birth policy,increasing education andtraining,promoting labor flow,and increasing the LFPR among the middle-aged,particularly women,so as to preventsevere shocks from a diminishing labor force.
This paper describes the changes in China’s total population,labor force age structure and labor force participation rate(LFPR).Based on census data,this paper assesses the age pattern and changes in the LFPR,examines factors affectingthe LFPR through modeling and predicts the trends of labor force development to 2050.We find that the labor force hasbeen growing rapidly at an average annual rate of 6 percent from 1980 to 2005 due to improvements in competency andstructure.On the other hand,the overall LFPR declined mainly due to prolonged education that slashed the LFPR amongadolescents.The age pattern of labor force participation is in the shape of an inverted-U curve.Results from a Logit regression model of labor participation indicate that labor force participation intensity is higher inthe South than in the North and higher among the male population than among the female population.Presuming that thetotal fertility rate climbs to 2.0,life expectancy increases by ten years,and delayed retirement age lengthen the duration oflabor participation.We have made the following forecasts:(1) China’s future working age population will decrease;(2) labor force willexperience zero growth within 15 years and then negative growth;(3) the middle-aged and elderly populations willaccount for a significant share of the labor force.It is important to explore ways to increase,train and use human resourcesand increase the LFPR and productivity.In today’s China,regional or structural labor force shortage has already emerged.With an ageing population,China should take proactive measures by relaxing its birth policy,increasing education andtraining,promoting labor flow,and increasing the LFPR among the middle-aged,particularly women,so as to preventsevere shocks from a diminishing labor force.
基金
is sponsored by NRC0607.HSS01 of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
