灰色外推方法预测某院未来二年心脑血管疾病发展趋势

目的探讨未来2年心脑血管疾病发展趋势。方法选取某院近8年疾病分类年报,采用灰色预测模型进行预测。结果通过模型拟合精度检验,预测结果表明,近10年来,心脑血管病人呈上升趋势。结论一方面,明确该院未来2年心脑血管疾病的发展趋势,为决策者及时发现和解决问题提供科学依据,同时也为医院的规划和发展提供科学参考;另一方面,应加强该疾病的宣传力度,以提高人们的防病意识和生存质量。

Objective To explore the trend of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease in the future 2 years.Methods Classification of diseases annual reports of certain hospital in recent 8 years have been chosed and predicted by grey forecasting model.Results Through fitting accuracy test of model,the results show that the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease patients was the upward trend in the past 10 years.Conclusion On one hand,clear the trend of cardiovascular disease in the hospital in the next 2 years,and provide scientific basis for decision makers to discover and solve problems.At the same time,provide scientific information for planning and development for hospital.On the other hand,the publicity of the disease should be strengthened to reduce the morbidity of such disease and in order to raise disease prevention consciousness and improve quality of life.