广东近46年秋季干旱特征分析

Characteristics of Autumn Drought in Recent 46-year in Guangdong

根据1961-2006年广东省10个测站降水量资料,利用平均降水等待时间指数AWTP,通过经验正交函数分解等统计方法对广东秋季干旱的基本特征进行分析研究。结果表明:气候平均而言,粤东秋季较粤西易旱,其中最易旱的地区位于河源-惠州一带。从年际变化看,广东秋季干旱以全区一致型为主,其次为东/西局部型。1990年之后广东全省性秋旱和局部性秋旱都具有程度加重的趋势,其中以惠州-河源地区最为显著。

Using the statistical method such as empirical orthogonal function(EOF),observed daily precipitation data in Guangdong Province from 1961 to 2006 and the index,average waiting time for the next precipitation(AWTP),the basic characteristics of autumn drought in Guangdong are discussed.On the terms of climatic average,the autumn drought events in the eastern Guangdong occurred more frequently than in the western Guangdong.The region from Huizhou to Heyuan is the most severe area of autumn droughts.On the inter-annual scale variation,the autumn drought occurred mainly province-wide in Guangdong,and occurred in the local eastern or western part of Guangdong for few years.After 1990, both the province-wide and the local autumn droughts in Guangdong are tent to be more serious,especially in the region of Huizhou-Heyuan.