韩江流域年降雨量均生函数预测模型

Mean-generating Function Model for Annual Precipitation Prediction of Hanjiang River Basin

年雨量通常具有较大的随机性,流域的年雨量的预测对于流域的水文长期展望具有重要的意义。本文应用均生函数建立韩江年雨量预测模型,进行试报和检验,结果表明,均生函数预测模型可以很好地拟合年雨量的变化趋势,预测结果有一定的可信度,且有多步预测能力。

Base on mean-generating function,the annual precipitation prediction model for the Hanjiang River Basin was developed. The result is satisfactory,especially in case of extremes.Although the accuracy of the actual forecasting is not much higher than the fitting accuracy,the model is worth being studied and improved with its multi-step prediction capacity.