气候变暖对菏泽牡丹花期的影响及花期预测模型

Impacts of Climate Warming on Peony Florescence in Heze and Prediction Model for Florescence

分析菏泽市1964-2008年牡丹始花期与气象观测资料发现:牡丹始花期与前期气温呈明显负相关,与降水、日照时数的相关性不显著;近25a牡丹始花期有明显提前趋势。通过筛选影响牡丹始花期的最优势相关气象因子,利用DPS数据处理系统建立了牡丹始花期中、短期气象预测模型。历史回代及对2007年、2008年试报效果均较好。此结果可为观赏菏泽牡丹的最佳日期预测提供参考。

By analyzing the relationship between the peony first flowering date and meteorological data from 1964 to 2008 in Heze,the results showed that peony first flowering date was negatively correlated with the temperature before flowering,but it was not significant to precipitation and sunshine duration.Moreover,the peony first flowering date was obviously advanced in recent 25 years.Through selecting several optimal meteorological factors that influenced peony first flowering date,a long-term and short-term meteorological prediction model for peony first flowering date was made by using the DPS data processing system.With this model,test predictions in history and in the year of 2007 and 2008 were good.This result could provide a reference to predicting the optimum time of ornamental peonies in Heze.