湖北水稻对盛夏低温冷害的敏感性分析

Research on Sensitivity of Rice to Chilling Injury in Summer in Hubei Province

近年来湖北水稻盛夏低温冷害出现明显的增强趋势,为探讨灾害对水稻生产造成的不利影响,本文用湖北省1981-2006年的气象资料、水稻产量数据和1∶25万的地理信息背景资料,寻找与灾害年气象条件相似的对照年,比对水稻相对气象产量差值以及灾害强度,从而分析20世纪80年代后湖北各地水稻对盛夏冷害的敏感性及其空间分布情况,并通过水稻空壳率对结果进行检验。结果表明:湖北水稻对盛夏冷害的敏感性在空间分布上既有规律可循又复杂多变,对于历年盛夏低温冷害强度和频率变化不大的地区,如鄂西南和江汉平原,水稻对冷害的敏感性较弱;对于近年来灾害强度增幅显著,且发生频率明显增大的地区,如鄂西北和鄂东南部分地区,水稻对灾害的敏感度较强,容易给农业生产带来不利影响。

As a consequence of global warming,chilling injury in summer is becoming one of the main weather disasters of rice crop in Hubei Province.Based on the data of the meteorology and the yield of the rice from 1981 to 2006,the spatial distribution characteristics of the rice sensitivity of chilling injury in summer were analyzed by using ArcGIS technique and SAS system.The result showed that the rice sensitivity of the cold summer in Hubei was complex and variable.The sensitivity in the areas such as the north-western and the eastern parts of Hubei,where the intensity of disaster was enhancing obviously and the frequency was increasing significantly in recent years,was stronger than the areas such as the south-western and Jianghan Plain where the changing of the intensity and the frequency of the disaster were small.Therefore,rice production in the north-western and the eastern parts of Hubei was apt to be affected adversely by the disaster of the equalty intensity.