近45年潍坊市降水气候特征及水资源现状分析

Analysis on Precipitation and Water Resource in Weifang City in Last 45 Years

利用潍坊市10个观测站1961-2005年的降水量资料,通过气候统计诊断方法对潍坊市四季及年降水量的年际、年代际变化特征进行分析。结果表明:潍坊市年降水量年际变化较大,总体呈明显下降趋势;季节降水量年际变化亦呈下降趋势,但下降幅度明显不同,其中夏季降水量年际变化最大,下降趋势最明显,对全年大气水资源的变化起着非常重要的作用。利用Morlet小波分析方法研究了潍坊市降水的周期变化,表明近45a来潍坊市年及四季平均降水均存在显著的年代际尺度和年际尺度的周期变化。对潍坊市水资源的现状进行分析表明,潍坊市水资源的严重短缺制约着其经济的可持续发展。

By using the precipitation data of 10 observation stations in Weifang City from 1961 to 2005,the four seasons in Weifang city and the inter-annual and decadal variation characteristics of the precipitation were analyzed with climatologically statistical diagnosis.The results showed that the annual precipitation had great variation and showed obvious decreasing trend.The inter-annual seasonal precipitation decreased,but the decrease amplitude was obviously different.The inter-annual precipitation in summer was the most serious among four seasons,the decreasing was the most obvious and it had important impact on the variation of annual atmospheric water resource in the whole year.The periodic variation of precipitation in Weifang city was analyzed by using MORLET wavelet analysis.It showed that the inter-annual scale and inter-decade scale periodic variation of the average year and season precipitation had significant change in last 45 years.The water resources current situation in Weifang City was analyzed,the results showed that economic sustainable development was restricted by the severe water shortage in Weifang city.