大理市生态足迹动态变化及预测研究

Study on dynamic change and its prediction of ecological footprint in Dali City,Yunnan Province,China

预测研究是生态足迹研究中较为重要的一个研究方向.通过对生态足迹未来发展趋势的拟合,能够有效克服生态足迹计算结果的静态性缺陷,并对区域可持续发展状态的预测、预警和相关政策的制定具有实际意义.以云南西北的大理市为研究对象,运用生态足迹模型,对大理市1985～2007年的生态足迹进行了计算,分析了大理市不同时期的可持续发展状态.运用逐步回归分析方法对未来13a的生态足迹变化进行了预测分析,并将该模型应用于大理市城市总体规划环境影响评价.结果表明,在1985～2007年间,大理市的人均生态足迹呈整体上升趋势,生态赤字持续扩大;如保持现有的发展模式和发展速度,大理市的人均生态足迹将不断增长,到2020年,人均生态足迹将是人均生态承载力11倍.如果照此,该市的发展将会进入不可持续状态.

Prediction research is one of the important issues in ecological footprint (EF) study,which could overcome the static limitation of EF calculation through simulating the changing trend of EF,and has practical meaning in predicting and making strategic decision on regional sustainable development.In this study,the concept of EF and its calculation method was introduced to quantitative assess the sustainability of Dali City,northwest of Yunnan Province,China from 1985 to 2007.EF changes using stepwise regression for the future 13 years was forecasted and analyzed,and this model was used to the Strategic Environment Assessment of General urban Planning of Dali city.The ecological capacity (EC) based on the calculation showed that on the whole,the EF of Dali had ascending trend from 1985 to 2007,and ecological deficit per capital of Dali was quickly increased.The prediction results indicated that the EF would be increased more quickly,and then it will be 11 times than the EC in 2020.If the present development model and rate could be kept,such a development state should be unsustainable for this area.