中国政府消费和公债发行对居民消费的影响

Effects of Government Activities on Private Consumption in China

论文把欧拉方程式和"有效"消费理论结合起来,利用中国的统计数据(1985—2005年)分析政府消费和公债发行对居民消费支出的影响。同时,考察政府收入和公债发行对政府消费支出的影响。实证分析的结果表明:(1)当期的政府消费支出对居民消费支出的影响较大(系数估计值为0.5左右);(2)当期的国内外公债发行对居民消费支出的影响较小(系数估计值为0.05左右,而且在统计上不显著),但是滞后一期的国内外公债发行对居民消费支出合计及其中的城镇居民消费支出的影响较大(系数估计值分别为0.17和0.27),这说明居民在某种程度上视政府公债为财富;(3)政府消费支出受政府财政收入的影响比较大,而受国内外公债发行的影响比较小(系数估计值分别为1和0.1左右)。根据实证分析的结果,可以得出一些政策建议。即,为了扩大居民消费支出、特别是农村居民的消费支出,可以通过政府消费支出的扩张来实现。由于政府消费支出主要以税收为财源,受预算的约束很大,所以一方面可以考虑开辟财源以增加财政(税收)收入,另一方面可以考虑在一定时期内扩大政府债务的发行,从而实现政府消费支出的适度扩张。

In this paper,we combine the Euler equation with'effective'consumer theory to investigate the effects of government activities on private consumption in China.We also intend to study the impact of fiscal revenue and public debt on government consumption.The estimated results suggest that: (1) Current government consumption brings greater impact on private consumption (the estimated coefficient is about 0.5);(2) The impact on private consumption of current domestic and foreign government debts is weak(the estimated coefficient is about 0.05,but is not significant statistically),but the impacts of the lagged one period's domestic and foreign government debts on total and urban private consumption are greater(the estimated coefficients are about 0.17 and 0.27,respectively),which suggests that the private sector regards government debts as wealth in some degree;(3) Government consumption is affected by fiscal revenue greater than by domestic and foreign government debts(the estimated coefficients are about 1 and 0.1,respectively). According to the empirical results,we can give some policy suggestions. That is,in order to expand private consumption,we can use the method of increasing government consumption.However,government spending is mainly financed by tax revenue and is constrained by fiscal budget strictly,so we can consider increasing fiscal(tax) revenue on one hand,and on the other hand we can consider issuing government debt in a certain period to achieve an appropriate expansion of government consumption.