摘要
The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed.
The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-July-August) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3). Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions. Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rain-fall distribution; however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated. Concerning the rain pattern classifications, RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin). Under future climate conditions, RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1, more of Pattern 2, and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River). These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future, while rain-fall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly. Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed.
基金
jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2009CB421407)
the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorology) (GYHY200806010)
