外资流入与我国房地产价格关系的实证研究

本文利用我国1999-2007年的季度数据,通过协整分析、Granger因果关系检验分析了房地产价格与外资流入之间的长期均衡关系和短期因果关系。结果表明,外资流入与房地产价格之间存在长期均衡关系,而短期房价上涨吸引外资流入。并且进一步通过脉冲响应和方差分解得出了外资流入的变化与房地产价格波动彼此间冲击的时效性和解释的比例。

Using the 1999-2007 quarterly data of China,through cointegration analysis and Granger causality test,this paper has analyzed the long-term equilibrium and short-term causal relationship between real estate price and the inflow of foreign capital in China.The results showed that there is long-term equilibrium relationship between the inflow of foreign capital and real estate price.In the short run,the rising of Real estate price attracted foreign capital inflow.And through impulse response and variance decomposition,this paper has further obtained the time effect and the ratio of interpretation between the change of foreign capital inflow and the fluctuation of real estate price.