进口对辽宁省经济增长贡献度的实证分析——基于时变参数卡尔曼滤波的估计

Empirical study on contribution of import to economic growth of Liaoning Province——Estimate based on the Kalman's filter with time-varying parameters

为了探寻辽宁对外经济发展的合理模式,从进口与经济增长间的关系入手,选用1985～2007年辽宁省的进口和地区生产总值数据,利用时变参数的分析方法对二者进行相关性分析,得出了进口对辽宁省的经济增长存在促进作用,而且这种作用随时递增的结论。因此,辽宁省应充分发挥进口对经济增长的积极作用,以快速实现辽宁老工业基地的振兴。

In order to find a reasonable developing model of foreign economy in Liaoning Province,some study is done from the relationship between import and growth of economy.It uses optimal recursive data processing algorithm to analyze the correlation between import and economic growth based on the data from 1985 to 2007.It shows that the import boosts the growth of economy,but the effect decreases as the time passes by.Liaoning Province should use the positive effect of the import so as to revitalize the old industry base.