摘要
为了保证工程项目顺利进行,达到降低项目风险的目的,引入贝叶斯网络方法,以实现工程项目风险的有效管理。贝叶斯网络是一种对概率关系的有向图解描述,是一种可视化的方法,可对风险管理中历史数据缺乏的问题提供有效补充。通过情景分析和因果分析得出影响风险的关键因素排序,从而有效地进行风险控制,是直观、有效的风险管理工具。通过贝叶斯网络方法在工程项目风险管理过程中的应用研究,实现了更准确,更敏捷的风险管理。
In order to guarantee the smooth proceeding of engineering projects and the achievement of the aim of reducing risks of projects,the Bayesian network is introduced to realize the effective management of risks of engineering projects.Bayesian network is a vectored graphic description and a visualization method to probabilistic relationships which can provide effective supplement for the lack of historical data on risk management.Through scenario analysis and causal analysis,the crucial factors are ranked which affects the risks so that the risks can be controlled effectively.This will become intuitive and effective risk management tool.Bayesian network method is applied in the risk management of engineering projects,and more accurate and quicker risk management is realized.
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2008年第3期239-244,共6页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
辽宁省教育厅基金资助项目(2005301)
关键词
风险
工程项目风险
贝叶斯网络
risk
engineering project risks
Bayesian network
