基于主成分分析的飞控系统研制费用估算

Evaluation of R&.D Cost for an Aircraft Flight Control System Based on Main-Factor Analysis

飞机飞控系统的寿命周期费用估算与预测是航空工程系统优化和研发的重要环节。本文通过对10种飞控系统的研究发现,飞控系统的种类、功能差异、性能指标虽然与6种关键因素有关,但因素之间的关联度大,从而过去建立的回归模型稳定性差、抽样误差大。本文基于主成分理论和方法,确立了最佳变量子集合,运用SPSS11.0和SAS8.1统计分析软件对6个关键变量进行了主成分分析,建立了飞控系统研制费用多元回归估算模型。模型检验效果良好。从而给出了具有实际应用、可操作性强的飞控系统研制费用的数学模型。为飞控系统研发提供了必要的手段。

The evaluation and forecast of the life cycle cost for an aircraft flight system is the important link in the system optimization and R&D of aviation engineering. Through the research on ten flight control systems, it is found out that although the kinds, the functional differences and property quotas of flight control systems are related to six key factors, the association between factors is strong enough so that the regression model built in the past is unstable and has large sampling error. This paper establishes the optimal variable set based on the theory, and method for evaluating the R&D cost of an aircraft flight control system is also presented in this paper by using SPSS 11. 0 and SAS 8. 1 to carry out the main-factor analysis on the six key factors. Because the regression model put forward in this paper has the ideal experiment results, it can be used to evaluae the R&D cost of an aircraft flight control system practically and flexibly and offers an effective method for evaluating the life cycle cost of an aircraft flight control system.