细菌性痢疾季节性高峰变化及其与气温关系的研究

Study on the Relation ship between Seasonal Peak Change of Bacillary Dysentery and Atmospheric Temperature

目的 探讨气温对细菌性痢疾发病的影响。方法 应用相关回归统计法和圆形分布法对资料进行研究。结果 菌痢的月平均发病百分构成比与相应年份月平均气温呈正相关(r=0.5099,P<0.01);辖区近10年的平均气温较前10年有所上升,尤其秋冬季与初春月平均气温升高了1℃左右,而菌痢发病高峰时点明显后移(F=11.49,P<0.01),流行高峰期也有后移倾向。结论 气温对菌痢的发病有直接影响,气温升高,菌痢的发病增加,年平均气温升高可导致菌痢的发病高峰时间后移。

Objective To find out whether the atmospheric temperature influences the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Methods The data were analyzed by correlat ion regression and round distributing method. Results A positive correlation was found between the constituent ratio of average incidence rate in a month and the average atmospheric temperature in the corresponding month the ( r = 0.5099, P < 0.01). The average atmospheric temperatures during the latest decade were higher than that of the former decade in this area, it was 1 ℃ higher in autum or winter and early spring particulary.The peak point of incidence of the disease was put off(F = 1.49, P < 0.01), so was the epidemic peak period in a year. Conclusion The atmospheric temperature directly influence to the incidence of bacillary dysentery. The warmer average atmospheric temperature, the more bacillary dysentery. A highly average atmospheric temperature would result in a postponement of peak period of incidence of bacillary dysentery.