摘要
By comparing with ENSO events that ever happened in the history, the basic features and probable causes of the anomalous sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean during 1997 and 1998 have been analyzed diagnostically. It is found that the 1997/1998 El Nino had significant abnormalities and peculiarities. It differs from the previous El Ni駉 events falling into the simple eastern pattern or western pattern. The predictions of 1997/1998 El Ni駉 event have also been tested with an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamic model. The results show that the skills of the 0～24 lead month forecasts for the warm event are all above 0.5. The predictions of the mature phase and the later stages of the warm event are better than those of the beginning phase.
By comparing with ENSO events that ever happened in the history, the basic features and probable causes of the anomalous sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean during 1997 and 1998 have been analyzed diagnostically. It is found that the 1997/1998 El Nino had significant abnormalities and peculiarities. It differs from the previous El Nino events falling into the simple 'eastern pattern' or 'western pattern'. The predictions of 1997/1998 El Nifio event have also been tested with an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamic model. The results show that the skills of the 0~24 lead month forecasts for the warm event are all above 0.5. The predictions of the mature phase and the later stages of the warm event are better than those of the beginning phase.
基金
Key project of China Meteorological Administration "Studies on the cause of formation and the application of prediction for the heavy rainstorms over Yangtze River and Nenjiang River Basins in 1998" and the sub-project II (96-908-02-05) of National Key
