东亚冬季风年际变化的ENSO信息 I.模拟资料分析

ENSO Signals in Interannual Variability of East-Asian Winter Monsoon Part II Simulated Data Analyses

系统分析了观测海温强迫９层大气环流模式的模拟资料，结果表明该大气环流模式能够对与ＥｌＮｉｎｏ、ＬａＮｉｎａ事件爆发有关的赤道太平洋异常纬向风和对流活动有很好的模拟；模拟中的东亚冬季风具有明显的年际变化特征，这种变化与观测结果有很好的一致性，而且进一步分析发现这种年际变化具有显著的２～７年的周期，即东亚冬季风异常与ＥＮＳＯ密切相关。

The simulated output of the 9-level global atmospheric circulation model (IAP-AGCM) is systematically and thoroughly analyzed The results saliently show that this model has good abilities to simulate the anomalies of the equatorial zonal wind and the convection activity having a close association with the outbreak of El Nino and La Nina episodes The simulated East Asian winter monsoon exhibits an striking interannual variability which agrees well with the observation Through further analysis, this variation has an obvious cycle of 2～7 years In other words, the interannual anomaly of the winter monsoon has a close relationship with the occurrence of ENSO