水库岸坡岩体渗透变形的预测预报方法──自适应时间序列研究

The Forecasted Method of Rockmass Seepage Deformation on Bank Slope of ReservoirStudy on Self adaptive Time Series

研究了库岸边坡岩体渗透变形的动力学机制，并根据多参数的随机变化规律，建立了非线性ＣＡＲ模型，通过分析实例。

This paper studied on the seepage deformation dynamical mechanism of rockmass, an analyzed the rockmass deformational feature of bank slope of reservoir using the nonlinear CAR model based on the law of multi parameter stochastic process, proposed the self adaptive time series control principle and forecasted method of rockmass deformation by the analysis on example of bank slope engineering of reservoir.