基于Gompertz模型的液体火箭发动机可靠性增长分析

The Reliability Growth Analysis for Liquid Rocket Engine According to The Gompertz Model

运用Gompertz模型和线性回归方法对液体火箭发动机批次试验中的可靠性增长因子进行分析,对新产品的可靠性分布函数进行预测。结合产品的少量现场试验数据,利用Bayes方法对系统的可靠性增长试验结果进行分析。文中首先给出了可靠性增长因子分析的模型,然后运用历次阶段试验中的可靠性增长数据建立动态参数的递推估计模型,在此基础上,运用随机变量函数的分布,给出各阶段可靠性增长试验中可靠性参数的Bayes估计。最后给出实例进行说明。

In this paper,the Gompertz model and linear statistical method are used to analyze the growth factor of batch experiments for a liquid rocket engine.The reliability distribution of a new product is also forecasted.Then,Bayesian method is used to evaluate the reliability parameters of the products.In the article,first,the reliability growth analysis model is presented.Then with the reliability growth test data, a dynamic parameter iterative evaluation model is built.With the iterative model and field test data,the reliability evaluation of every stage can be calculated by Bayesian formula.Based on the distribution of function of the random variable,the reliability evaluation is given.An example is shown to illustrate this method.