几种不确定性表现及“吸烟与长寿”问题的MYCIN测度

SEVERAL MANIFESTATION OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE MEASUREMENT OF THE ISSUE ABOUT SMOKING AND LONGEVITY

论述客观实际存在的不确定性所表现的四个方面:1、证据的不确定性;2、语义理解上的不确定性;3、产生式规则不确定;4、推理的不确定及其推理网模型。同时介绍了MYCIN模型及使用MYClN模型对“吸烟与长寿”的问题进行了科学的测度,并对测度结果进行了分析。

In the first part of the essay it expounds the four maniftestated aspects of uncertainty which exist in the world. 1,The uncertainty of evidence 2. The uncertainty of understanding of Language meanings ,3. The uncertainty of production rules. 4-The uncertainty of reasoning and the pattern of reasoning network. In the second part, it introduces the pattern of MYCIN and gives a scientific measurement of the issue about smoking and longevity by using the pattern and analyze the result of measurement.