输电系统的分层可靠性建模及概率模拟

Hierarchical transmission system reliability modeling and probabilistic simulation

建立了由等效元件级、变电站级和网络级构成的输电系统的分层可靠性模型并提出了基于非序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的概率模拟算法。模型中考虑了线路的多重故障：相关故障和共同模式故障，继电器、断路器和重合闸故障，母线段及变压器故障，及不利气候条件对输变电设施故障概率的影响，重点在于协调这些故障模式间的完整性及一致性。算例表明该方法是合理的、有效的。研制的软件已在实际电网中应用。

A hierarchical transmission system reliability model which consists of equivalent element level, substation level and network level is established and a computer algorithm based on the non sequential Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. The model considers multiple indepedent outages: correlative outages, common mode outage, outages of protection relays, breakers and reclosers, outages of buses and transformers, and the effect of abnormal weather conditions on the outages of transmission and distribution equipment. The developed software has been used in several practical power systems and the responses are encouraging.