摘要
280年来，新疆及其邻近地区M≥7级强震在时间间隔上具有良好的有序性，各有序值之间关系密切，其序结构整齐规则，具有预测功能。据此跟踪讨论了1996年阿图什6．9级和喀喇昆仑山7．1级强震后该地区M≥7地震趋势。综合分析结果表明，下次M≥7强震可能发生在2004、2009和2015年前后。
The strong earthquakes with M ≥7 are ordered in time intervals 280 years since 1716 inXinjiang and its adjacent region. There are some close relations among these interval values.The structures of order are tidy and regular. which has predictional function. Based n the ordered structures, we discuss the seismic trend with M ≥7 after Atushi M 6. 9 earthquake andKala -Kunlunshan M 7. 1 earthquake .and meanwhile make a tracing predicion:the futurestrong earthquakes with M≥7 may occur around 2001, 2009 and 2015 in this region.
出处
《高原地震》
1997年第4期46-53,共8页
Plateau Earthquake Research
关键词
新疆
有序性
序结构
强震预测
Xinjiang Order Structure of order Strong earthquake prediction
