原苏联地区地缘政治格局及其演变分析

An Analysis on the Geopolitical Pattern and Change in the Former Soviet Union

本文简要分析了苏联解体后本地区新的政治地图及其面临的主要地缘政治问题，论述了其空间一体化与空间分离化的趋势和方向。分析指出，独联体内部经济空间—体化由于各成员国彼此需要将会有较大发展；而政治和军事空间—体化则由于俄罗斯国力下降、部分成员国反对、西方和伊斯兰世界抵制而难以取得实质性进展、同时，由于各成员国和各民族自治区域间存在诸多矛盾和历史恩怨，地区性争执和冲突会此起彼伏，时缓时激，进而对区域地缘政治格局的稳定构成危胁。

This paper analysed new political map and main geopolitical problems in the former foriet Soviet Union after the disinteqration of USSR, and pointed out the tendency of intergration and sepration in this area.1. The economic intergration in the United Team will farther develop because of the related needs of present states. But due to the weakening of Russia's power, the opposition of some of the states and the resistance of the west world and Islam, the political ad military intergration will be curbed.2. In the different areas of the former Soviet Union, Local quarrels and conflicts will come and go sometimes peaceful, sometimesviolent, challenging the stalbility of the geopolitlcal Pattern of this area due to the cvintradictions and historical resentments among the states and self governing areas.