电力系统负荷预测的周期性可调灰色模型

Periodical Adjustable Grey Model for Prediction of Electric Loads

本文针对电力系统负荷变化的不可控性和周期性,通过采用Census Ⅱ分解方法分析季节因子,与历史负荷相比较,得到一系列长期趋势项,然后用可调灰色模型对分离出的长期趋势项进行预测,并用二分法调整u,v的取值,使得误差最小.将预测出的季节因子与长期趋势项重新组合,就得到日用电量的预测结果,实例表明,本系统对于呈周期性变化的电力负荷具有较好的预测效果.

In view of in-contrallability and periodicity of electric loads, the authors analyse electric loads by using 'census Ⅱ ' decomposition method and get a series of season factors and terms of load trend. Then the authors apply the adjustable grey model to forecast electric loads. A real example shows that the method is efficient.