江淮地区未来气候变化趋势的模型试验研究

An Numerical Study on the Prediction of Climatic Change Trend in Jiang-huai Basin

本文报导了运用灰色系统拓扑预测方法，对长江下游江淮地区的降水和温度变化趋势作了长期预测模型试验，并对该预测模型的预测精度和预测能力作了检验。试验结果表明：预测模型的预测准确率较高且稳定性好；该地区未来３０年将由多雨期（前１０年）转入少雨期（后２０年）；相应地，盛夏将由偏凉期转入偏热期，隆冬冷暖则表现为准ＺＯ年周期变化。因此，在２００Ｏ年前，洪涝年型仍较多，凉夏年型仍占优势，暖冬年型将逐渐减少；在下世纪初的２０年中，洪涝年型减少，夏季高温干旱趋势上升。

The numerical experiments have been carried out by using topological predicting model of grey system theory to forecast long-range change trend of rainfall and temperature in Jiang-huaihe basin. the result shows that the model is fairly stable and precision. During 1991 - 2020, the climatic change trend in Jiang-huai basin predicted by topologic forecasting model agrees with other research conclusion.