摘要
In this paper,according to the geological structure and the data on seismicity in the Shanxi seismic belt,the tectonic stress field of this belt is numerically imitated by using the finite element method,and by analyzing synthetically the characteristics of seismogeoiogical structure,seismicity and tectonic stress field,the trend of the coming macroseism in the Shanxi seismic belt can be roughly assessed.The main estimate is as follows.From 1993 to 2015,a strong earthquake with Ms=6.2±0.4 may occur in the Shanxi seismic belt,and there are 3 possible locations for earthquake occurrence,if we arrange according to the order of possibility of earthquake occurrence,the location of a coming earthquake would be(1)the region between Huoxian and Hongdong;(2)the region surrounded by Datong,Huairen,Yingxian and Hunyuan,and(3)the region surrounded by eastern Lingqiu to both ends of the Laiyuan fault.
In this paper,according to the geological structure and the data on seismicity in the Shanxi seismic belt,the tectonic stress field of this belt is numerically imitated by using the finite element method,and by analyzing synthetically the characteristics of seismogeoiogical structure,seismicity and tectonic stress field,the trend of the coming macroseism in the Shanxi seismic belt can be roughly assessed.The main estimate is as follows.From 1993 to 2015,a strong earthquake with Ms=6.2±0.4 may occur in the Shanxi seismic belt,and there are 3 possible locations for earthquake occurrence,if we arrange according to the order of possibility of earthquake occurrence,the location of a coming earthquake would be(1)the region between Huoxian and Hongdong;(2)the region surrounded by Datong,Huairen,Yingxian and Hunyuan,and(3)the region surrounded by eastern Lingqiu to both ends of the Laiyuan fault.
