摘要
Due to the limitation of the data,the β value of seismic zones have been determined by the historical seismic data at the present seismic hazard analysis. Because of lacking of historical documents,many moderate historical events were not recorded and the determined seismicity parameters have shown the uncertainty. It is difficult to describe the temporal inhomogeneous of the seismicity by the instrumental observation data with short time.This paper used the maximum likelihood method to joint two data with different precision and duration, which brings each superiority into play and overcomes each shortcoming.Therefore, it is possible for results to have more actual significance.The method for the estimation of the uncertainty and the sensitive analysis of these pa rameters have been shown. It might provide other way for estimation of the parameters in the seismic hazard analysis.
Due to the limitation of the data,the β value of seismic zones have been determined by the historical seismic data at the present seismic hazard analysis. Because of lacking of historical documents,many moderate historical events were not recorded and the determined seismicity parameters have shown the uncertainty. It is difficult to describe the temporal inhomogeneous of the seismicity by the instrumental observation data with short time.This paper used the maximum likelihood method to joint two data with different precision and duration, which brings each superiority into play and overcomes each shortcoming.Therefore, it is possible for results to have more actual significance.The method for the estimation of the uncertainty and the sensitive analysis of these pa rameters have been shown. It might provide other way for estimation of the parameters in the seismic hazard analysis.
