滑坡灾害可预报时间尺度问题探讨

DISCUSSION ON LANDSLIDE DISASTER PREDICTIVE TIME SCOPE PROBLEMS

本文从非线性系统的吸引子概念出发，根据相空间轨道上初始时刻相邻的点随时间的演化来估计吸引子的维数和可预报时间尺度。实例分析表明，滑坡孕育过程存在着已知变量数目范围的确定性规律，是可以预报的，但可预报时间范围有限。据此，对长期、中期及临滑预报的可行性作了分析。

The attractor dimension and predictive time scope are evaluated according to evolution of near points on the phase space orbit versus time at the initial time in view of the nonlinear system attractor concept. It is shown that the deterministic law with known variable numbers in the landslide pregnant process exists and landslide can be forecasted, but its predictive time scope is limited by the practical analysis. The possibility for long-term,medium-term and critical sliding predicition is simply discussed.