摘要
According to the theory of the nonlinear dynamical systems with forcing and dissipation,theconceptual ideas are proposed that the intense convective system is an attractor of the meso-scale dynamicalsystem,in which the large-scale fields serve as the bifurcation parameters that evolve slowly.The intenseconvective systems occur explosively when the intensity of the large-scale system passes a bifurcation point.Thus,its prediction is just to predict the evolution of the attractor,independent of the mesoscale initial con-ditions.A primitive spectral limited-area model has been developed and two realistic cases,which were cap-tured by the Eastern China area mesoscale experiment,have been simulated by using this model.The resultshave proved the theoretical points.
According to the theory of the nonlinear dynamical systems with forcing and dissipation,the conceptual ideas are proposed that the intense convective system is an attractor of the meso-scale dynamical system,in which the large-scale fields serve as the bifurcation parameters that evolve slowly.The intense convective systems occur explosively when the intensity of the large-scale system passes a bifurcation point. Thus,its prediction is just to predict the evolution of the attractor,independent of the mesoscale initial con- ditions.A primitive spectral limited-area model has been developed and two realistic cases,which were cap- tured by the Eastern China area mesoscale experiment,have been simulated by using this model.The results have proved the theoretical points.
基金
supported by the Specific Foundation for Collegial Doctoral Station from the State Education Commission.
