渤海海域地震活动的预测与分析

PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY IN BOHAI SEA WATERS

考察了自１３３８年以来的发生在渤海海域的历史地震，建立了该海域ＭＳ≥７级地震活动的灰色灾变ＧＭ（１，１）模型，又以该海域发生ＭＳ≥７级地震的具体年份为原始数列，建立了ＭＳ≥７级地震活动的灰色数列ＧＭ（１，１）模型．这两个模型的预测结果相吻合．文中对预测结果的可信性作了详细的论证．

In this poper, a grey calamities GM (1,1 ) model of earthquake activity with MS≥7 events in Bohai Sea waters has been established on the base of investigating historical earthquake since 1338 in the As waters.and a grey time-series GM(1, 1) model of earthquake activity with MS≥7 events in Bohai Sea Waters has been built tubing exact age in which MS≥7 events earthquake occurred as origical sequence. The predictive result of this two distinct GM(1,1) models are tally. It was given that a minute proof for the trustability of predictive result.