苏州市人口老龄化分析

An Analysis of the Population Aging in Suzhou

基于对苏州市第四次人口普查人口年龄结构的分析,本文认为苏州市已进入人口老年型早期。文中论述了该市人口老龄化的现状、过程及趋势,剖析了过去与未来主导这一进程的不同的人口学因素,特别强调了控制人口增长对这一进程的作用。文中预测现在和今后的二十年内人口老龄化发展较缓,总抚养比较低,正届人口构成上的“黄金时期”,面临着实现经济跃升的契机。其后,人口老龄化将以空前的速度进行。抓住当前的契机也是今后从根本意义上解决好老龄人口问题所必需的。

This paper discusses the present situation, process and trend of the population aging in Suzhou through the analysis of the age composi tion of population based on data of the 4th census in Suzhou. This process characterized by its higher speed results from the control of population size. This paper further points out that Suzhou is in a 'Golden period' of the age composition of population on the basis of the investigation of factors concerning this process. This period provides us with an opportunity for economical development and it is of great importance to seize this opportunity in view of the essential solution to the problem of population ageing.