可靠度计算的蒙特卡洛模拟法

The Monte Carlo Simulation Method of Reliability Calculation

模拟计算本质上是一种通过试验求近似解的特殊数值方法。本文介绍了机械零件可靠度计算的蒙特卡洛模拟法;提出将安全系数作为随机变量,通过可靠度的安全系数概率模型,对所有基本随机变量在计算机上产生随机样本序列,进行统计分析求出可靠度的随机模拟方法,给出了模拟计算程序框图.模拟计算的精度直接与模拟次数有关,文中对模拟计算精度与模拟次数之间的关系进行了详细的分析。

This paper provides a simulation method(Monte Carlo technique)for calculating the reliability of mechanical components. This approch may be viewed as a computer—generated experiment in which a problem is analyzed numerically through a sampling experiment.Like other experiments this simu- lation technique shares the problem of sampling errors.The relationship between the accu- racy and number realizations have been analyzed.The most important advantage of Monte Carlo technique is the possibility of obtaining the probability distribution of safety fac- tor(other conventional approximation methods don't have this possibility).Simulation is a very useful way in the reliability analysis.