动态气象数学模型的研究(一)——模型的构成方法

A STUDY ON DYNAMIC WEATHER MATH MODEL (I)——CONSTITUTION METHOD OF MODEL

以北京地区10年逐日五项实测气象资料为基础,经过统计分析,得到了反映参数变化规律的特征值,以此建立了模拟逐日气象参数的五维自回归动态气象数学模型。该模型既能体现出各种气象参数之间的互相关及自相关关系,又能使模拟出的结果具有一定的随机性。用该模型模拟出的气象数据可用于空调动态负荷计算及空调能耗分析。

Based on the actual dayly records of five weather parameters in Beijing in a period of ten years and their statistical processing, the characteristics reflecting the regular pattern of the weather parameters are obtained. A five-dimensional dynamic model of the weather is then established for simulation of the dayly weather data. while providing a random simulation, the model keeps the mutual relationship among the weather parameters as well as that within each of themselves. The simulated data can be used in computation of dynamic air-conditioning load and energy consumption analysis.