电力系统超短期负荷预报

VERY-SHORT-TERM POWER SYSTEM LOAD FORECAST

本文将时间序列相关分析理论应用于电力系统超短期负荷预报。用乘积型周期性ARIMA模型在线拟合系统负荷序列,并给出了模型的快速在线拟合算法。采用逆函数法并辅以平滑处理完成负荷预报。实例计算表明,本文算法预报速度快,预报精度高。

In this paper, the Theory of Corrclation Analysis on Time Series is applied to very-short-term power system load forecast. System load series is coincided mith Multiply Seasonal ARIMAmodel. The Fast Online Coincidence Algorithm of this model is given in this paper. Load forecast is implemanted with Inverse Function Method and Smoothing Method. Practical calculations hawe shown that the algorithms in this paper can satisfy the demands of online calculation which requires rapidity and precision.