应用模糊综合评判方法研究大同—阳高6.1级地震的发展趋势

A Study on the Developing Trend of Datong-Yanggao M6.1 Earthquake by Way of Fuzzy Synthetical Judgement

利用模糊综合评判方法对1970年1月至1989年10月发生在山西境内大于3.0级的地震序列进行了处理。选取4个地震预报因子,给出了M_L∈〔4.0,5.0〕和M_L∈〔5.5,6.5〕两个震级区间的识别方程,据此方程的外推结果,提出大同—阳高地震序列在1989年11月和12月两月内可能出现起伏,但发生地震的最大震级为M_L∈〔4.0,6.0〕,实践证明,该结论与事实相符。

The sequence of earthquakes large than M3. 0 occurred in Shanxi Province from January of 1970 to October of 1989 is dealt with by way of fuzzy synthetical judgement 4 earthquake prediction factors are chosen. The identifieation formula between Ms∈ [4. 0,5. 0] and Ms ∈[5. 5.6. 5] is given, according to the extrapolation result of which the authors conclude that there will probably be fluctuations in Datong - Yanggao seismic sequence within November and December of 1989. The magnitude of the earthquake to occur will be Ms∈ [4.0,5. 0]. It is proved by facts that their conclusion conforms to reality.