利用灰色模型研究我国当代科技期刊出版发展趋势

STUDY OF DEVELOPING TREND OF CHINESE CONTEMPORARY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PERIODICALS PUBLICATION THROUGH GREY MODEL

本文通过具体统计获得了1980～1987年我国科技期刊出版种数的数据序列,用一阶线性微分拟合模型进行模拟,建立了80年代我国科技期刊出版数量模型;经过两种方法检验,说明模型可信,较准确地揭示了我国当代科技期刊出版数量的增长规律;最后利用所得模型进行了预测,同时证实了我国科技期刊的增长也是遵循指数规律的。

This article has obtained the data sequence of the kinds of Chinese science and technology periodical publications from 1980 to 1987 by statistics, and established the digital model of Chinese contemporary science and technology periodical publications in 80's with the simulaion of linear differentiation quasi-model. After detected with two methods, the model is credible and it shows the rule of increasing number of Chinese contemporary science and technology periodical publications more acurately. At last it proves that the development of Chinese contemporary science and technology periodicals also follows the exponential rule by predicting with the model obtained.