脑动脉硬化症的计量诊断研究

Study of Quantitative Diagnoiss of Cerebral Arteriosclerosis

作者选择确诊为脑动脉硬化症患者72例,可疑脑动脉硬化症患者70例及健康成人70例。采用逐步回归分析和逐步判别分析筛选43项临床和辅助检查指标,最后选取15个变量进行logistic判别分析,建立判别式Y_a和Y_c。经研究对象的回代检验,其诊断符合率为100%。另选34例受检者进行前瞻性双盲检验,发现所建立的判别式有很高的敏感性(96.7%)、特异性(100%)、阳性预测值(100%)、阴性预测值(83.3%)及准确性(97.1%)。作者认为判别式Y_a和Y_c用于脑动脉硬化症的诊断切实可靠,具有推广应用价值。

On the basis of clinical di-agnostic criterion of cerebral arteriosclero-sis, we selected, 72 patients with cere bralarteriosclerosis, 72 patients with suspectedcerebral arteriosclerosis and 70 healthy in-dividuals and screened 42 variables obtainedfrom clinical and accessory examinationwith a stepwise discriminant. analysisand a stepwise regression analysis Finallywe performed a logistic discriminant ana-lysis of 15 selected variables in order toestablish diagnostic discriminant formulas.Y_2 and Y_c. It was found that a diagnosticcoincidence rate for rediscriminant analy-sis of 212 individuals with the formulaswas 100%. Very high sensitivity(96.7%), spe-cificity (100%), positive predicted value(100%), negative predicted value(83.3%) andaccuracy(97.1%) were noted in a prospec-tive double-blind test on 34 subjects.Theauthors suggest that the discriminantformulas Y_a and Y_c established for diagnosisof cerebral arteriosclerosis be widely appli-cated.